The Real Story in the Democratic Race of 2008

The real story of the race between Obama and Clinton for the nomination of the Democratic party has not been covered by any news agency. The news today is not really news, it is more like People magazine. Instead of news one hears opinions posed as news. The two biggest gimmicks: quoting someone’s statement as a fact, and polls.

If I were to say, “the earth is mainly made of silicon”, a modern news agency would say: “Oybama: Earth is really Silicon.” Yeah, maybe I said that, BUT IS IT TRUE? “Gore states that scientists overwhelmingly believe Global Warming is caused by humans.” Sound familiar? A fact? Well it is true that Gore stated this, but that doesn’t mean that either scientists do believe that or that Global Warming is caused by humans. In fact, in this case the real story should be “Gore thinks what scientists believe is more important than what they can prove.” Now that would be a truthful headline.

But the more disgusting People Magazine posing as news these days are polls. Every day there is a new poll. Election results are covered in 2 seconds: Clinton 55%, Obama 42%.. the rest are poll results. 90% of this group voted for Clinton, 60% of that group would not vote for Clinton if she wore blue lipstick. What nonsense.

What gets lost then are the facts of the election. So let me tell you a fact. You can predict very accurately which states voted for which Democratic candidate by looking at a single variable: % of black people in that state. Obvious you might say… Well, not so fast. Here are the facts:

1, Of states + D.C. with black population greater than 20%, all of them (that is 100%) went for Obama;

2, Of states with black populations between 6.3% and 20%, all but 3 went for Clinton (of the 3 that went for Obama, one was his home state),

3. Of states with black populations less than 6.3%, 16 out of 20 went for Obama, only 4 of 20 went for Clinton.

That means that one variable: % of black population between 6.3% and 20%, will predict 86% of the actual election results. Have you heard that reported anywhere? No, but I’m sure you’ve heard hundreds of polls trying to explain who voted for what.

Now the question one might ask is why fact 3. Obviously fact 3 was the real difference in the Democratic election. Unlike the press today, I will refrain from explaining why. Maybe if I poll 100 people I can find out the answer.

One Response to “The Real Story in the Democratic Race of 2008”

  1. CKA in Red State USA Says:

    Interesting analysis.

    But I wonder: Given how Barack/Barry SoetorObamaDunham has been tanking since the caucuses and primaries, wonder if those stats are still relevant.

    Wonder, too: How many blacks are simply afraid to say publicly that they will not vote for BBSOD?

    Ditto for the liberals and some leftists who must realize, by now, that BBSOD is not just damaged goods–he’s VERY damaged goods with no resale value.

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