Best Analysis is Common Sense

I was asked today how one can figure out which candidates or pundits are telling the truth and which are lying. It seems that the media and especially the press have their biases, many obvious to even the most casual viewer, so you can’t tell by listening or reading what is the truth. He posited that what we are left with is making decisions based on the feelings we get from the candidates, their most common labels (i.e. conservative/liberal) or on a single defining issue such as abortion. I suggested that you can apply common sense too.

Take, for example, Obama’s health plan. I don’t know much about it EXCEPT that he claims that his plan will significantly improve the availability of health insurance and medical access and will cost about $60B/year. Let’s use some common sense. Looking up on Google, the U.S. expends $2.3T on health-care right now, and is growing by about 10% per year. $60B is 2.6% of the total health expenditures. What Obama is saying, then, is that he can fix healthcare by increasing expenditures by 2.6%, less than the annual growth rate. Does that make common sense?

Let’s look at Obama’s $15B/year green energy plan (taken from his website):

Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.

Do you believe that the Government can spend $15B/year on green energy. I do. Do you think that it will create any commercially viable product or service? That would be a first. In 2007, about $30B was invested by all venture capital firms. Somehow Obama thinks he can reproduce, or grow by 50%, the entire venture community with government bureaucrats. Does that make common sense?

Obama claims that he did not know that his friend and pastor, Rev. Wright, had a “God Damn America” attitude in his sermons. He claims he had no idea that Rev. Wright had such negative views of the U.S. Government. Maybe he knew and didn’t care, but NO, he claims he did not know. Does that make common sense?

When presented with ideas that are difficult to analyze, the best approach is to take the high level view. Look at what is being done today: how much money is involved, how many people are involved, how much time is involved, etc. Then look at what is being proposed. Could it happen? Is it possible? If it is possible then it may be true, but if impossible then it is certainly false.

One Response to “Best Analysis is Common Sense”

  1. sam*i*am Says:

    so basically what you are saying is that obama is a lying pile of pig poop. i do not mean to malign any pigs by that assessment, and i apologize if any of our porcine friends are offended.

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